Leading Tesla Inc. analysts Dan Ives and Gary Black have revealed stark differences in their valuation approaches, despite both remaining bullish on the electric vehicle maker’s prospects.
What Happened
Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, maintains the Street’s highest price target of $515, with a bull case of $650. He cites potential revenues from autonomous robotaxis and the company’s Optimus robot project, and projects Tesla’s earnings at $15 per share by 2030.
- Ives values Tesla’s autonomous business alone at $1 trillion
- He estimates autonomous vehicles could capture 20% of ride-shares by decade’s end
In contrast, Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, takes a more conservative approach with a $380 target. Black forecasts $17 earnings per share by 2030, but excludes robotaxi and Optimus revenue from his calculations.
- Black notes his use of higher risk adjustments in Tesla’s valuation given its volatility
- He assumes Tesla took 25% of ride-sharing market share, which only adds about a dollar per share in earnings
Why It Matters
The valuation debate comes as Tesla’s stock has surged nearly 71% year-to-date, recently crossing the symbolic $420 level. Morgan Stanley has named Tesla its top stock pick for 2025, citing the company’s advances in autonomy and robotics.
Analysts’ Outlook
Both Ives and Black expressed optimism about Tesla’s planned entry into the compact car segment. Black suggested a $25,000-$30,000 hatchback could expand Tesla’s market reach.
- Tesla has a consensus target of $280.41 from 33 analysts
- Recent ratings from Baird, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs give an average target of $446.67, implying a 3.05% upside
Year-to-Date Performance
The Tesla stock has gained 69.50% year-to-date.
Conclusion
The differing valuation approaches of Ives and Black highlight the complexity and uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s stock. As the company continues to innovate and expand its market reach, investors will be watching closely to see how these developments impact the stock’s performance.