Tesla’s plans to launch a robotaxi service have sparked intense debate among market critics, with new data from New York City’s ride-sharing market fueling concerns about the technology’s revenue potential. The company’s autonomous business has been valued at $1 trillion by some analysts, but others are not convinced.
What’sDriving the Skepticism?
Analyst Gordon Johnson argues that Tesla shorts would benefit from robotaxi approval, stating that the “promise is worth much, much more than the reality.” His comments were made alongside data shared by veteran short-seller James Chanos, which shows that New York City’s daily ride-sharing usage averages 768,000 trips, or roughly three rides per capita monthly.
Contrasting Forecasts
The skepticism contrasts sharply with bullish forecasts from leading Tesla analysts. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities values Tesla’s autonomous business at $1 trillion and projects that robotaxis could capture 20% of ride-shares by 2030. On the other hand, Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC takes a more measured stance, questioning Tesla owners’ willingness to add their vehicles to a robotaxi fleet despite potential earnings of $40,000 annually per vehicle.
Challenges Ahead
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has also expressed doubts about Tesla’s robotaxi strategy, citing challenges in fleet management and customer service that differ significantly from vehicle manufacturing. Tesla reportedly plans to launch its ride-hail service in Texas and California in 2025, pending regulatory approval.
Current Market Status
Tesla’s stock has gained 71% year-to-date, with Morgan Stanley naming it their top pick for 2025. The company currently has a consensus price target of $280.41 from 33 analysts.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions face skepticism from market critics
- New data from New York City’s ride-sharing market fuels concerns about revenue potential
- Contrasting forecasts from analysts, with some valuing Tesla’s autonomous business at $1 trillion
- Challenges ahead, including fleet management and customer service
- Tesla’s stock has gained 71% year-to-date, with a consensus price target of $280.41