Tesla Inc. shares have experienced a significant decline, closing down by 4.95% on Friday and slipping another 1.35% in pre-market trading on Monday. This pause in the company’s electrifying 2024 run has left investors wondering if this dip is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.
Year-to-Date Performance
With year-to-date gains of 73.76% and a 105.69% surge over the past six months, Tesla’s recent stumble raises questions about the company’s future performance. As the EV giant prepares to report its fourth-quarter delivery numbers, Wall Street anticipates 511,000 vehicles, up 10% from the prior quarter and 5% year-over-year.
Tesla’s Q4 Delivery Buzz Meets Profit-Taking Blues
The anticipated delivery numbers could bring Tesla’s 2024 total deliveries to 1.8 million vehicles, narrowly missing the 2023 figure of 1.81 million. However, speculation about the Cybertruck’s potential launch in China was recently squashed by Tesla China, which denied any plans for a January 1 debut.
Macro Headwinds
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates could weigh on vehicle sales, as rising borrowing costs discourage financing – a critical factor for the auto sector. This macro environment poses a significant challenge for Tesla and the entire industry.
Tesla Stock Chart: Mixed Messages for Traders
The technical indicators for Tesla’s stock present a fascinating puzzle:
- Bearish near-term signals: TSLA stock trades below its eight-day simple moving average (SMA) ($444.49), a potential red flag.
- Bullish longer-term signals: TSLA stock remains above its 20-day ($412.95), 50-day ($338.59), and 200-day ($236.36) SMAs, keeping optimism alive.
- Momentum indicators: A robust moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator of 31.46 and a relative strength index (RSI) of 58.59 suggest the stock isn’t overbought – yet.
What’s Next for TSLA Stock?
Tesla’s trajectory depends on its fourth-quarter delivery performance and investor appetite for high-growth names in a challenging macro environment. While the stock’s recent pullback reflects profit-taking and cautious positioning, the longer-term bullish indicators hint at potential upside if deliveries beat expectations.
Critical Juncture
The EV leader’s stock faces a critical juncture. A stellar delivery report could recharge the rally, but elevated interest rates and bearish near-term technicals pose risks. Investors may want to buckle up for volatility ahead.