Tesla’s latest delivery miss has sparked intense debate among analysts regarding the company’s autonomous driving and robotaxi ambitions. Despite the company’s efforts to promote its Optimus robot, some analysts are skeptical about its potential.
Bulls vs Bears
James Thorne Remains Bullish
James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus, remains optimistic about Tesla’s prospects. He believes that the company’s focus on robots, Robotaxi, and autonomy will drive growth in 2025. Thorne expects Tesla to reach a $2 trillion valuation by 2025, dismissing current market reaction as noise.
Gordon Johnson Counters with Skepticism
On the other hand, GLJ Research CEO Gordon Johnson is strongly critical of Tesla’s Optimus robot. He likened the company’s human-controlled robots to outdated technology from 1980s Chuck E. Cheese restaurants, stating that they are years behind the competition. Johnson predicts that Tesla will sell approximately 0.00 robots in 2025.
Potential Catalysts
Gary Black Outlines Positive and Negative Factors
Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC outlined several potential catalysts for Tesla, including the launch of a new $25,000-$30,000 vehicle in the first half of 2025. Black maintained a $380 price target and projected that Tesla will reach 8.1 million vehicle sales by 2030, representing an 18% global EV market share. However, he also cautioned about risks, including the potential elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Debate and Sales Disappointment
Tesla Reports 495,570 Deliveries in Q4
The debate comes as Tesla reported 495,570 deliveries in the fourth quarter, missing analyst estimates of 506,763 and marking its first annual sales decline. Tesla shares dropped 6% to $379.28 following the news, though the stock maintained a roughly 62% gain for 2024.
Why It Matters
Growing Scrutiny Over Full Self-Driving Technology
The sales disappointment comes as Tesla faces growing scrutiny over its Full Self-Driving technology. Truist analyst William Stein recently tested FSD v13, noting that it required no interventions during a 15-mile trip but showed concerning behaviors, including failure to yield to pedestrians.
Outlook for 2025
Gene Munster Sees Crucial Year Ahead
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management suggests that 2025 will be crucial for Tesla’s growth trajectory. While he expects a further pullback going into the January 29 earnings, Munster believes that shares are undervalued long-term.
Price Action
Tesla Shares Fall 6.08% to $379.28
Tesla shares fell 6.08% to $379.28 on Thursday but rose 1.03% in after-hours trading. The stock gained roughly 62% in 2024, trading between $138.80 and $488.54.
Analyst Ratings
Consensus Price Target of $284.62
Tesla has a consensus price target of $284.62 from 33 analysts, with a high of $515 and a low of $24.86. The three most recent ratings average $451.67, suggesting a 17.87% upside.