Electric vehicle (EV) giant Tesla Inc. is expected to deliver approximately 1.8 million vehicles in 2025, according to researcher Troy Teslike. This projection is more or less in line with the company’s deliveries in 2024.
Teslike’s Projections
Teslike shared his thoughts on Tesla’s vehicle deliveries for 2025 on social media platform X:
- 1.9 million deliveries: Very optimistic
- 1.8 million deliveries: Realistic
- 1.7 million deliveries: Below expectations
These numbers indicate meager to no growth from 2024, when the company delivered 1,789,226 vehicles. The launch of a new and refreshed version of the best-selling Model Y SUV is not expected to significantly impact deliveries.
Impact of New Model Launch
Teslike dismissed the impact of the new Model Y launch, citing that the launch of a refreshed Model 3 in China in late 2023 and in the US in early 2024 did not aid annual deliveries.
Tesla’s Promise of New Vehicles
Teslike’s estimates take into account Tesla’s promise of new vehicles, including more affordable ones, in the first half of 2025. The lower-cost model is expected to be priced below $30,000 after accounting for a federal EV tax credit of $7,500, implying a pre-credit price of nearly $37,500.
Why It Matters
Tesla launched a new and refreshed version of the Model Y in China and the US, with deliveries set to start in March. The long-range all-wheel drive variant of the refreshed Model Y starts at $59,990 in the US, a 25% increase from its predecessor.
Price Hikes
The company has warned of price hikes on its entire car lineup in Canada, with Model 3 prices expected to rise by as much as C$9,000. In China, Tesla’s second biggest market, the company hiked prices of the Model 3 by 3,600 yuan earlier this month.
Quarterly Report
In Tesla’s last quarterly report, the company stated that its plans for new vehicles, including more affordable ones, remain on track for the start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as the current lineup.
Deliveries and Sales
Tesla reported global deliveries of 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, down from 1.81 million in 2023, marking the first decline in over a decade. CEO Elon Musk expects vehicle sales to grow by 20%-30% in 2025, which Teslike believes is not realistic.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Tesla’s deliveries in 2025 are expected to be flat, with a realistic projection of 1.8 million vehicles. The company’s promise of new vehicles and price hikes may not be enough to drive significant growth in deliveries.