Tesla Inc is expected to see a decline in its EV deliveries in 2025, despite the company’s promise to release new and more affordable models. According to researcher Troy Teslike, deliveries are expected to drop by 1% to 1.77 million units, below the company-compiled consensus estimate of over 2 million units.
Expected Deliveries
The expected decline in deliveries is attributed to several factors, including:
- The start of Tesla Semi deliveries not contributing to the delivery numbers this year
- CEO Elon Musk not reiterating the 20%-30% delivery growth target that he had put forth in October
- Sales expected to drop in both the US and Europe due to top brand sentiment and fewer incentives
- Deliveries expected to rise in China, similar to 2024
New Model Releases
Tesla has announced that it will start production of new models, including more affordable ones, in the first half of 2025. However, Teslike expects the new vehicles to cannibalize sales of existing models. The company has also promised to start testing its autonomous ride-hailing service in Texas in June with vehicles deployed with its full self-driving (FSD) driver assistance technology.
Impact on Tesla Stock
Tesla stock rose after hours on Wednesday despite the company reporting revenue and earnings below expectations. The company’s promise of new and affordable models, as well as its plans to start testing its autonomous ride-hailing service, drove investor sentiment. However, Musk also warned that the company will be retooling factories for the start of production of its new and refreshed Model Y in the first quarter, resulting in several weeks of lost production.
Current Stock Performance
Tesla stock closed up 2.9% at $400.28 on Thursday. The company has a consensus price target of $320.75 based on the ratings of 32 analysts and a consensus “buy” rating.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Tesla’s expected decline in deliveries in 2025, combined with the company’s plans to release new models and start testing its autonomous ride-hailing service, will likely have a significant impact on the company’s stock performance. As the company continues to evolve and grow, it will be important to monitor its progress and adjust expectations accordingly.