Researcher Troy Teslike expects Tesla to sell only 21,000 Cybertrucks in 2025, a significant decrease from the sales in 2024. This forecast is much lower than the estimated 65,000 units predicted by Wall Street analysts.
What’s Behind the Forecast?
Teslike tracks Tesla’s delivery numbers and notes that the company delivered 34,426 Cybertrucks in 2024. However, this number includes customers who had pre-ordered the vehicle and were waiting for it since its unveiling in November 2019. The researcher believes that the order backlog is now gone, and Tesla ended 2024 with 10,600 unsold Cybertrucks due to overproduction and low demand.
No Cheaper Cybertruck Variant Expected
Teslike dismisses the possibility of a cheaper Cybertruck variant launch in 2025, stating that the current model is not profitable. Introducing a cheaper version would only worsen the situation.
Current Market Situation
The non-foundation series Cybertruck is currently available in two variants:
- The lower-priced all-wheel drive variant starts at $79,990
- The higher-priced Cyberbeast variant starts at $99,990
However, during its unveiling in 2019, Tesla promised three variants:
- An entry-level single-motor, rear-wheel-drive (RWD) version starting at $39,900
- A dual motor all-wheel drive variant starting at $49,900
- A top-tier tri-motor all-wheel drive starting at $69,900
The current prices are higher than initially projected, which may be deterring potential customers and reservation holders from buying the vehicle.
Expansion and Incentives
Tesla is now selling the Cybertruck in Canada and Mexico, in addition to the US. The company has also announced that the all-wheel drive variant is eligible for a federal EV tax credit of $7,500 in the US, reducing the effective price to $72,490 for eligible customers.
Conclusion
The predicted collapse of Cybertruck sales in 2025 may be a significant concern for Tesla. The company needs to reassess its pricing strategy and consider introducing more affordable variants to attract new customers and revive sales.