Tesla Inc.’s deliveries for the first quarter of the year may not meet expectations, according to researcher Troy Teslike. This could be the first time the company’s quarterly deliveries fall below 400,000 units since the third quarter of 2022.
Factors Affecting Deliveries
Several factors are likely to impact Tesla’s deliveries in the first quarter, including:
- Model Y production limitations: The company is facing challenges in ramping up production of the refreshed Model Y vehicle.
- Seasonality: The demand for vehicles is typically lower during the first quarter of the year.
- Poor brand sentiment: The recent negative publicity surrounding the company may affect sales.
- New Model Y launch: The introduction of the new Model Y may have a positive impact on deliveries.
Delivery Projections
Troy Teslike expects Tesla’s full-year deliveries to be below the numbers reported in 2024. In 2024, Tesla delivered 1.79 million vehicles globally, down from 1.81 million in 2023. This marked the company’s first decline in deliveries in over a decade.
CEO’s Expectations
Tesla CEO Elon Musk had initially predicted a 20-30% increase in deliveries for 2025. However, this target was not reiterated during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call in January. Instead, the company stated that it expects the vehicle business to “return to growth” in 2025.
Recent Developments
Tesla has recently launched the refreshed version of its best-selling vehicle, the Model Y. The company started production of the new vehicle less than two weeks ago and will begin deliveries in March. However, the production ramp-up is expected to be challenging, with the company facing several weeks of lost production due to retooling its factories.
Conclusion
Tesla’s Q1 deliveries may fall below 400,000 units due to a combination of factors, including production limitations, seasonality, and poor brand sentiment. The company’s full-year deliveries are also expected to be lower than in 2024. However, the launch of the new Model Y may have a positive impact on sales, and the company is working to overcome the challenges it faces.
Previous Performance
Tesla last reported quarterly deliveries below 400,000 units in the third quarter of 2022, when it delivered 365,923 vehicles. In the last quarter of 2024, the company reported 495,570 deliveries, thanks to offers and discounts across different regions.