Tesla Inc. researcher Troy Teslike has expressed doubts about the company’s ability to deliver 500,000 vehicles in a quarter in 2025. This skepticism is primarily due to “brand sentiment issues.” In this article, we will delve into the reasons behind this prediction and explore the current state of Tesla’s deliveries.
Background
The highest number of deliveries Tesla has achieved in a quarter to date was in the fourth quarter of 2024, with 495,570 vehicles delivered. Although the company aimed to exceed 500,000 deliveries, it fell short due to demand issues. Teslike stated, “Sadly reaching 500,000 in a single quarter doesn’t seem possible this year either, mostly because of brand sentiment issues.”
Current Situation
Teslike predicts that Tesla’s best quarter in 2025 will likely be below 470,000 units, and the situation may worsen, making it challenging to achieve even 450,000 deliveries. The sentiment around Tesla is deteriorating, largely due to Elon Musk’s association with President Donald Trump and his support for far-right leaders and parties. Additionally, the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Musk, is facing backlash for firing or forcing out government workers across departments, leading to protests.
Impact on Deliveries
Tesla reported a decline in vehicle deliveries for the first time in over a decade in 2024, with global deliveries of 1.79 million vehicles, down from 1.81 million in 2023. In the democratic state of California, Tesla had only 203,221 vehicle registrations in 2024, a 12% decrease from the previous year. Deliveries have not improved since the start of this year, with Tesla’s China-made EV sales falling 11.5% to 63,238 units in January. In the European Union, Tesla’s new car registration fell by over 50% in January, despite a rise in overall battery electric vehicle registrations.
CEO’s Expectations
Elon Musk initially expected a 20-30% increase in deliveries in 2025. However, during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings in January, Musk did not reiterate this target. Instead, Tesla stated that it expects the vehicle business to “return to growth” in 2025, implying that deliveries may be higher than in 2024.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Tesla’s goal of delivering 500,000 vehicles in a quarter in 2025 seems unlikely due to brand sentiment issues and declining deliveries. The company’s current situation, combined with the negative sentiment surrounding Elon Musk’s actions, may hinder Tesla’s ability to achieve its delivery targets. As the electric vehicle market continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how Tesla will address these challenges and impact its future growth.