The first-quarter delivery figures from Tesla Inc are highly anticipated, following intense concerns over demand amid boycotts and lower sales reported in regions of Europe. As investors and analysts closely watch for official delivery figures, a look at key estimates reveals a mix of predictions.
Background
President Donald Trump’s purchase of a Tesla vehicle in the first quarter of 2025 has drawn attention to the company’s delivery figures. Now, investors and analysts await the official numbers to see how many thousands of customers worldwide received their Teslas during the quarter.
Analyst Estimates
Consensus estimates from analysts predict first-quarter deliveries of 377,592 units, comprising 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 deliveries of other Tesla models. However, not all predictions align with these numbers.
Public Predictions
A poll conducted by Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt on X gathered predictions from over 10,000 users:
- Under 350,000: 37.3%
- 350,000 to 360,000: 31.4%
- 360,000 to 370,000: 11.9%
- More than 370,000: 19.4%
The under 350,000 option was the leading vote getter, with 68.7% of respondents predicting 360,000 or less deliveries in the first quarter.
Expert Predictions
Troy Teslike, who predicts Tesla deliveries and production figures, shared his final prediction for the quarter on X: 355,000 units. This prediction falls below the analyst consensus estimate.
Trading Predictions
On the prediction platform Kalshi, users can wager on Tesla’s delivery totals by trading in binary markets. The odds of 310,000 deliveries or more and 330,000 deliveries or more have odds of 95% and 94%, respectively. However, the odds slide significantly for higher delivery figures:
- 340,000 deliveries: 86% (equivalent to an 86 cent bet on yes)
- 350,000 deliveries or more: 56% (paying out a profit of 44 cents on a yes bet of $1)
Why It Matters
Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 386,810 last year. The company is likely to come under that figure to start 2025 and below analyst estimates, which could be due in part to the political push by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The company expects its vehicle business to return to growth in 2025 but may start off on the wrong foot, counting on a strong second half of the year with catalysts ahead.
Regional Sales
Reports of lower-than-expected sales of Tesla vehicles in regions of Europe have likely led to lower estimates. However, in China, Tesla registrations could be picking up, with 20,700 vehicles registered in the week of March 24 through March 30, the highest reported figure for the quarter.
Poll Results
A recent poll found that 53% of respondents said they would never own a Tesla, while 23% said they are more likely to buy a Tesla, and 14% said they are less likely to buy a Tesla. The majority’s negative view of Tesla could amplify concerns about demand and lead to lower shares and analysts cutting their price targets.
Stock Performance
Tesla stock is up 3.7% to $268.82, with a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. The stock is down 27.5% year-to-date in 2025 and up 56.9% over the last year. A low delivery figure reported this week could have significant implications for the company’s stock performance.