Tesla Inc.’s stock price after its first-quarter earnings report will depend more on the company’s outlook and key management comments, according to Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund LLC.
What to Expect from Tesla’s Earnings Report
Black predicts that the stock price will be influenced by several factors, including:
- The company’s plans for a more affordable vehicle
- The timing of the Austin unsupervised autonomous test market
- Elon Musk’s future involvement with Dogecoin
- Guidance on FY’25 delivery growth
Predictions for Tesla’s First-Quarter and Full-Year 2025
Black provided his predictions for Tesla’s first-quarter and full-year 2025, which are compared to Wall Street estimates in the table below:
| Metric | Gary Black’s Estimate | Wall Street Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 Adjusted EPS | $0.37 | $0.44 |
| Q1 Auto Gross Margin (ex-reg credits) | 12.6% | 12.3% |
| Q1 Revenue | $20.0 billion | $21.4 billion |
| 2025 Deliveries | 1.7 million (-5% YoY) | 1.809 million (+1.1% YoY) |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | $2.60 | $2.64 |
Why It’s Important
The Wall Street consensus may be outdated, as analysts usually don’t update their models after a quarter ends until the actual results come in. Black suggests that the Tesla Investor Relations (IR) survey of analysts is more realistic. The survey estimates are as follows:
| Metric | Tesla IR-Compiled Estimate | Wall Street Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 Adjusted EPS | $0.38 | $0.44 |
| 2025 Deliveries | 1.731 million (-3% YoY) | 1.809 million (+1.1% YoY) |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | $2.29 | $2.64 |
Recent Developments
Tesla has delayed the U.S. launch of a more affordable variant of its Model Y SUV, originally scheduled to debut in the first half of the year. The company is also planning to launch its Cybercab autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, but the plan has drawn skepticism from industry experts. Additionally, Elon Musk is facing criticism from investors over his involvement with Dogecoin and his role in the Department of Government Efficiency.
Price Action
Tesla’s stock dropped 5.96% on Monday, continuing a broader decline that has seen shares fall by 40.04% year-to-date. The company currently holds a growth score of 67.59% based on Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings. 29 analysts have set a consensus price target for Tesla at $298.14, with a potential upside of 41.17% based on the latest evaluations.