The world’s richest billionaire, Elon Musk, may be on the verge of influencing future U.S. elections with his promise to create the America Party if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes in Congress. Musk, armed with billions of dollars and significant worldwide influence, could face a formidable challenge as a third-party candidate.
Background
Musk has been at odds with the Big Beautiful Bill, creating tension with President Donald Trump and impacting Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares. The feud between Musk and Trump is very public, with Musk criticizing the bill backed by Trump that would increase America’s debt. Musk has taken to social media, tweeting about the issue and suggesting that he would form the America Party if the bill passes.
The America Party
Musk’s tweets have sparked interest in the potential rise of a third party or independent candidate. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang has established the Forward Party and has reached out to Musk to collaborate on a third party. Yang’s efforts come as Musk has polled his followers on the idea of a third party, with over 5.6 million people voting and 80.4% saying yes.
Historical Context
The last time a president not from the Democratic or Republican Party was in office was in 1853, when Millard Fillmore finished out the rest of his term under the Whig Party. Since America’s independence from Great Britain, the president has come from only five major political parties: Democrat, Republican, Whig, Democratic-Republican, and Federalist.
Notable Third-Party Candidates
Some notable third-party candidates include:
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who dropped out of the 2024 election and supported Trump
- George Wallace, who won five states in the 1968 presidential election
- Ross Perot, who placed third in the 1992 and 1996 elections
- John Anderson, who secured a third-place finish in the 1980 presidential election
- Theodore Roosevelt, who ran as a Progressive and lost to Woodrow Wilson in 1912
Betting Odds
Betting odds are rising in support of Musk’s potential move, with Polymarket odds standing at 43% and Kalshi odds standing at 47% for Musk to create a new political party by the end of 2025.
Conclusion
Times have changed since 1853, but Elon Musk’s ownership of X and his massive following could ignite a third-party movement. Whether he’s serious, and whether he can reshape political history for the first time in over 170 years, remains to be seen. One thing is certain, however: Musk’s potential entry into the political arena will be closely watched and could have significant implications for the future of American politics.