Tesla Inc.’s ambitious ventures beyond electric vehicles are capturing the attention of investors and analysts alike. The company is setting its sights on revolutionizing transportation and automation, with a focus on robotaxis, full self-driving (FSD) technology, and humanoid robots. According to a Tesla analyst, the electric vehicle giant could be worth significantly more in the future thanks to its goals in these areas.
Key Takeaways from the Analyst
- The analyst maintains an Overweight rating on Tesla and has raised the price target from $319 to $325.
- Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Texas was better than expected, and the company is looking to expand its robotaxi service to more cities.
- The goal is to reach half of the US population by year-end, although this is considered a stretch target.
- FSD is another key catalyst for Tesla, with a 25% increase in adoption rates since the launch of FSD V.12 in North America.
- Tesla is also working on getting FSD approved in Europe and is hoping for an unblock to provide the service in China.
Humanoid Robots: A Significant Opportunity
The future launch of the Optimus Bot, a humanoid robot, is expected to be a significant opportunity for Tesla. The analyst factors in a global valuation for this segment in the latest price target, assuming the use of Optimus exclusively for manufacturing jobs. However, if Optimus is used for home or retail purposes, the potential upside could be far greater than any other Tesla business.
Valuation Assumptions
To reach a new price target, the analyst values the car business at a 1.0x EV multiple and applies various multiples to the other businesses, discounting the value accordingly. The base value assumption of the Tesla segments to reach a price target of $325 is as follows:
- Megapacks: $134.2 billion
- Robotaxis: $649.2 billion
- FSD: $185.6 billion
- Humanoid Robots: $36.6 billion
- Cars: $136.5 billion
The analyst also provides an upside valuation for each segment, which sees Tesla reach a price target of $413. The upside valuations are as follows:
- Megapacks: $161.1 billion
- Robotaxis: $876.3 billion
- FSD: $206.8 billion
- Humanoid Robots: $73.2 billion
- Cars: $136.5 billion
Conclusion
The analyst’s Outperform rating is based on growing global EV demand and Tesla’s ability to fund growth in other product areas. While there are positives for Tesla, the end of federal tax credits could put pressure on the company’s electric vehicle segment over the next several quarters. However, with its ambitious ventures beyond electric vehicles, Tesla’s future value could surpass current levels, driven by its 2 key non-automotive segments.