Analyst Gary Black says Tesla’s stock is witnessing a notable rise, fueled by expectations of surpassing third-quarter delivery targets.
What’s Driving The Tesla Stock Surge
The recent stock surge is not due to advancements in robotaxi technology, but rather the anticipation of exceeding Wall Street’s delivery forecast. According to Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, every hedge fund has come to the realization that Tesla will crush 3Q delivery estimates. Black estimates 470K deliveries, compared to Wall Street’s estimate of 432K, as a result of buyers trying to get in front of the expiring $7,500 EV credit on September 30.
Let’s not kid ourselves: Tesla has been strong the past few days NOT because of progress on robotaxi but because every hedge fund has come to the realization that Tesla will crush 3Q delivery estimates in two weeks.
Tesla Stock This Year
Despite the positive momentum, Tesla’s stock is still down 2% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500’s 12% and Nasdaq 100’s 15% gains. Ongoing investment debates about Tesla’s future, including the potential impact of a new, more affordable model expected in the fourth quarter and the removal of safety monitors from robotaxis, could significantly influence Tesla’s earnings estimates and stock trajectory.
Tesla Under Scrutiny
Tesla’s performance in China has been under scrutiny, with sales falling 10% in August, marking the sixth decline in 2025. However, Tesla recorded its best week of the quarter in early September, with 14.3k new registrations in China, a 41.3% increase from the previous quarter.
Losing Ground In US
However, Tesla is losing ground in the U.S. market as new vehicle prices rise and EV sales hit new records. These mixed signals highlight the challenges Tesla faces in maintaining its market position amid global sales fluctuations and evolving market dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla’s stock is rising due to expectations of surpassing Q3 delivery targets
- The company’s performance in China is under scrutiny, with sales falling 10% in August
- Tesla is losing ground in the U.S. market as new vehicle prices rise and EV sales hit new records
- Ongoing investment debates about Tesla’s future could significantly influence the company’s earnings estimates and stock trajectory