Tesla Inc. is on the verge of its most significant phase yet, driven by its artificial intelligence and robotaxi ambitions, which could unlock at least $1 trillion in value. According to analyst Dan Ives, the company’s growth story is about to take a significant turn as the AI revolution takes hold and the robotaxi opportunity becomes a reality.
AI Revolution and Robotaxi Potential
The AI and autonomous opportunity is estimated to be worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla. This projection is based on the company’s potential to leverage its AI capabilities to drive growth in the robotaxi market. As Dan Ives noted, “We believe Tesla and Musk are heading into a very important chapter of their growth story as the AI Revolution takes hold and the robotaxi opportunity is now a reality on the doorstep.”
Recent Developments
Recent comments from notable investors and analysts have highlighted the potential for a Tesla-xAI merger, with some suggesting that such a deal “feels inevitable.” Additionally, a shareholder proposal has been filed urging Tesla’s board to approve an investment in xAI.
Delivery Momentum Fuels Near-Term Gains
Tesla’s stock surge in recent days is attributed to expectations that the company will exceed Wall Street’s third-quarter delivery forecasts. According to Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund LLC, “Let’s not kid ourselves, $TSLA has been strong the past few days NOT because of progress on robotaxi but because every hedge fund has come to the realization that $TSLA will crush 3Q delivery estimates in two weeks.” Black estimates that Tesla will deliver 470,000 vehicles in the quarter, well above Wall Street’s consensus of 432,000.
Mixed Global Signals
Tesla’s performance remains uneven across markets. In China, sales fell 10% in August, marking the sixth monthly decline in 2025. However, early September saw a rebound, with registrations hitting 14,300, a 41% jump from the previous quarter’s weekly average. In the U.S., rising vehicle prices have weighed on Tesla’s market share, even as overall EV sales climb.
Skepticism on Autonomy and Leadership
Not all observers are convinced that Tesla can deliver on the trillion-dollar thesis. Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, has questioned Tesla’s approach to autonomy, saying that Musk has ignored hardware issues critical to self-driving safety. An ex-employee has also criticized Musk’s leadership, alleging that it has damaged Tesla’s mission.
Tesla Stock Performance
Tesla’s stock has underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in 2025, with a decline of about 2% compared to the S&P 500’s 11.95% gain and the Nasdaq 100’s 14.66% increase. The company carries a consensus price target of $311.81 based on 29 ratings, with the three latest updates suggesting a slight 1.07% downside.
Conclusion
As Tesla navigates the complex landscape of AI and autonomy, the company’s valuation is projected to surpass $1 trillion. While there are mixed signals from global markets and skepticism about the company’s approach to autonomy and leadership, Tesla’s delivery momentum and potential for growth in the robotaxi market make it an interesting player to watch in the EV and tech spaces.