Tesla Inc stock soared 1,350% following its 2018 incentive plan for Elon Musk, and now Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney says the company’s newly announced package for the CEO is giving investor sentiment another boost, suggesting scope for positive momentum.
Recent Developments
In a fresh research note, Delaney points to Musk’s recent $1 billion purchase of Tesla stock and the new performance-based award as key drivers of investor optimism, helping Tesla outperform the broader market in recent weeks.
- Tesla shares are up 27.5% month-to-date, compared to a 2.7% gain for the S&P 500, giving the EV giant a positive year-to-date return once again.
- From January 2018, when Musk’s previous incentive award was announced, through September 4, 2025, Tesla stock gained roughly 1,350%—far outpacing the S&P 500’s 130% return over the same period.
Analyst’s Outlook
Delaney maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla and raised the price target from $300 to $395. The analyst expects Tesla to report its third-quarter deliveries on or around Oct. 2 and could report better-than-expected sales in the second half of 2025.
Delivery Estimates
The analyst raises the delivery estimates for the third and fourth quarter after looking at app downloads and consumer survey data.
- 455K in 3Q (up from 430K previously)
- 450K in 4Q (up from 443K previously)
Consumer survey data shows net purchase intent and net buzz about Tesla improving. The analyst predicts Tesla’s sales in the US could be up year-over-year in the third quarter with a strong September.
Future Outlook
While Delaney raises estimates for the second half of 2025, a current estimate of 1.865 million units delivered in 2026 remains unchanged. The loss of EV credits and increased competition in Europe and China are listed as potential negatives in 2026 that could offset growth from new models.
Tesla’s Future: Autonomy And Robotics
The analyst acknowledges future earnings per share growth for the company that could change the outlook.
- Longer term, Tesla is expected to grow its EPS driven in part by larger contributions from autonomy and robotics.
- The analyst estimates Tesla’s 2030 earnings per share could be in a range of $2 to $20 based on different outcomes.
Current Stock Price
Tesla stock is up 0.9% to $429.57 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $212.11 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up 13.3% year-to-date in 2025.