A prominent bearish analyst shares thoughts on what Tesla will report for its third-quarter financial results and what CEO Elon Musk will say on the conference call. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson maintained a Sell rating on Tesla with a $19.05 price target ahead of the earnings report.
Analyst’s Predictions
Johnson predicts that Musk will be “heavy on the optimism” during the company’s third-quarter results and conference call. This optimism is expected to come ahead of the November 1 shareholder vote on Musk’s pay package. While Johnson is bearish on Tesla, he believes that consensus estimates for Tesla’s third-quarter results could be “too conservative.”
Driving Factor for Stock Price
According to Johnson, the real driver of how Tesla’s stock trades post-earnings call won’t be the numbers, but rather the story Elon Musk decides to tell. He spoke with Tesla investors ahead of the earnings call and found that the consensus is that the CEO will sound “aggressively upbeat” to keep the stock price high ahead of the vote for his pay package.
Fundamentals and Future Growth
Johnson expects Tesla’s fundamentals to unravel in the fourth quarter but doesn’t anticipate Musk will discuss this during the call. Instead, the call is expected to be “heavy on optimism and light on truth.” The analyst believes any enthusiasm for shares after earnings could be an opportunity to reset short positions.
Investors’ Expectations
Record Deliveries and Production
Tesla previously reported third-quarter deliveries of 497,099, a new company record. The company also reported third-quarter production of 447,450 vehicles. Record deliveries could be a factor in why prediction markets show investors believing the company will beat estimates for the third quarter.
Prediction Markets
On the prediction market Polymarket, users have bet over $535,000 on whether Tesla will beat earnings. The market shows an 80% chance that Tesla will beat third-quarter earnings per share. Another prediction market, Kalshi, has a betting market for what Musk and Tesla will say on the earnings call, with words like “Energy,” “Robotaxi,” “FSD,” and “Optimus” having 95% or greater odds of being mentioned.
Historical Performance
According to data, Tesla has missed analyst earnings estimates in three straight quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall. The company has also missed revenue estimates in four straight quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.
Stock Performance
Tesla stock is down 2.2% to $433.08, with a 52-week trading range of $212.11 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up 14.3% year-to-date in 2025.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Elon Musk is expected to highlight the positives in Tesla’s Q3 earnings call, with a focus on future growth and optimism. However, some analysts remain bearish on the company’s fundamentals and expect the stock price to be impacted by the upcoming shareholder vote on Musk’s pay package.