Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries report shows signs of stability and market share gains, which could position the company well for the future. According to Gene Munster, a market expert, the company’s delivery numbers indicate a stabilization of overall delivery figures for the third and fourth quarters.
Q4 Deliveries Report
Tesla reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,227, down 16% year-over-year. Although the results missed Street estimates, Munster believes that the decline would have been around 5% if not for the expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the US in September. He estimates that around 55,000 units delivered in the third quarter likely would have happened in the fourth quarter or current first quarter.
Market Share Growth
Munster believes that Tesla has gained market share in the US. The company’s market share for the EV market in the US dropped to under 50% in recent years, but with an overall market decline of 35% for electric vehicles in October and November, Tesla’s 16% decline for the fourth quarter would indicate higher market share. According to Cox Automotive data, Tesla’s market share was roughly 65% for the first two months of the quarter, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
What’s Next for Tesla?
Munster estimates that Tesla’s total deliveries would be around 415,000, but downplays the importance of the figure in the company’s current growth plans. With analysts and experts placing greater emphasis on Tesla’s AI and robotaxi segments than on deliveries, volatility could be minimized. Investors are likely to look past any December quarter delivery miss, as the results should suggest the auto business is beginning to stabilize.
Tesla Stock Price Action
Tesla stock is up 4.02% to $455.70, with a 52-week trading range of $214.25 to $498.82. Tesla shares are down 0.5% year-to-date in 2026. Munster believes that Tesla shares have outperformed the Nasdaq over the last six months and since the company last reported vehicle deliveries on October 2.
Future Outlook
Munster is optimistic about Tesla’s future, driven by its leadership in physical AI, including FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus. He believes that Tesla’s market capitalization of $1.6 trillion could reflect a sum-of-the-parts premium relative to just the automotive business. Munster sees Tesla’s target valuation closer to $4 trillion than $1 trillion, given its leadership in physical AI.