Elon Musk’s xAI and SpaceX recently merged, valuing the company at over $1.25 trillion. With SpaceX now preparing for an initial public offering (IPO), there’s growing buzz around a potential merger between Tesla Inc. and SpaceX.
SpaceX IPO
SpaceX reportedly plans to raise $75 billion from its IPO, valuing the space exploration company at around $1.75 trillion. The company’s confidential filing would show that it is still targeting a June listing.
Tesla-SpaceX Merger Buzz
Amid the IPO, there’s also speculation around a merger between Tesla Inc. and SpaceX. While there has been no official information around a merger between the two companies, Gary Black, the managing director of The Future Fund LLC, has warned against such a move.
Concerns Around the Potential Merger
Black Raises Dilution Concerns
Black said that the deal could see a “20-25% reduction” in the value of the EV giant’s stock “if TSLA with a 100x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap buys SpaceX with a 200x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap.”
Prediction Market Insights
What the Data Says
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $42,000 has been bet on the contract “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?”
Source: Kalshi
Bettors are not confident about a merger between the two companies. The probability of the two companies merging before Mar. 1, 2027, is 22% as per bettors, down by 5%. The highest probability that bettors have assigned to this move is before May 1, 2027, at 26%, down by 8%.
Conclusion
While there’s growing speculation around a potential merger between Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, the prediction markets suggest that bettors are not confident about such a move. As the situation continues to unfold, it will be interesting to see how the markets react to any developments around a potential merger.