Elon Musk’s biographer, Walter Isaacson, believes that the SpaceX IPO filing may be a step towards something much bigger. According to Isaacson, this could be Musk’s “biggest act” yet, and he predicts that Musk will eventually push to fold all his companies into one.
The Driving Force Behind Musk’s Ambitions
Isaacson notes that Musk’s desire to make humanity a multiplanetary species has been driving him since he was a kid. This ambition is what fuels his innovative ventures, including SpaceX. With SpaceX’s confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, the company is on track for a potential June listing.
The Potential for a Record-Breaking IPO
Reports suggest that SpaceX could seek a valuation of over $1.75 trillion and raise up to $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history. If successful, this would dwarf any of Musk’s previous achievements.
The Pieces Are Coming Together
Isaacson believes that if Musk can put data centers in orbit and build a base on the Moon, it would surpass anything he has done before. It makes sense for Musk to combine his ventures into one company, as engineers already move between his companies, and the businesses “mesh well together.” This approach would also suit investors, but it raises concerns about the key-man problem.
Addressing the Key-Man Problem
Isaacson highlights SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell as someone who helps Musk execute his vision without tamping down his drive. Shotwell appears to be on the command team, which could help alleviate concerns about Musk’s dominant role in the company.
What the Experts Are Saying
Prediction markets are weighing in on the potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX. Kalshi traders are pricing a 32% chance that a merger will be officially announced by June 30, 2027. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities predicts a 2027 merger, calling it the “holy grail” of Musk’s AI ambitions, and maintains a $600 price target on Tesla.
Not Everyone Agrees
However, not all experts agree on the potential merger. Gary Black of The Future Fund warns that a merger could result in a 20-25% dilution hit to TSLA shareholders.
The IPO Outlook
Polymarket gives SpaceX a 90% chance of being the largest IPO by market cap in 2026. As Tesla remains the most liquid way to trade Musk exposure, investors are watching the developments closely. With Tesla trading around $369, down 3% after disappointing Q1 deliveries, the market is eagerly awaiting the outcome of the SpaceX IPO and potential future mergers.