Tesla has recently released its sales numbers for the first quarter, and the results are somewhat disappointing. With 358,023 deliveries, the company missed Wall Street’s consensus of 372,160. However, prediction market bettors had priced in a weaker quarter, with many expecting deliveries to be below 350,000.
Analyst Reactions
Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst with a $600 price target for Tesla, called the delivery numbers “quite underwhelming” but stated that it was “not a shock” given the current electric vehicle market. He maintained his Outperform rating, citing Tesla’s shift in focus towards its AI strategy.
What The Prediction Markets Showed
For most of the quarter, the “below 350,000” bracket was the favorite, trading above 60%. This was more pessimistic than Wall Street’s forecast, which sat at around 372,160. When Tesla published its own analyst consensus of 365,645 vehicles, the prediction market chart showed an immediate shift, with the 350,000-375,000 bracket surging from around 25% to near-100% within days.
Market Trends
The actual delivery number of 358,023 landed within the predicted range. The 6.3% year-over-year increase looks respectable at first glance, but it’s essential to consider that Q1 2025 was when Tesla shut down Model Y lines across all four factories for the Juniper refresh. A more accurate comparison is Q4 2025’s 418,227 deliveries, making this a 14.4% sequential drop.
Where Tesla Goes From Here
TSLA is currently down about 13.5% year-to-date. Canaccord recently slashed its price target by $100, and the analyst consensus is a Hold at roughly $395. Earnings are expected on April 28, with the focus depending less on cars sold and more on what Elon Musk says about Cybercab production, which is slated to begin this month.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla’s Q1 sales numbers are one of its weakest in years
- Prediction market bettors correctly priced in a weaker quarter
- Tesla is shifting its focus towards its AI strategy
- The company’s stock is down 13.5% year-to-date
- Earnings are expected on April 28, with a focus on Cybercab production