The relationship between Elon Musk and Sam Altman has been a subject of interest, especially given their history with OpenAI. According to Walter Isaacson, Elon Musk’s biographer, Musk has a distinct look when discussing Sam Altman, which isn’t pleasant. Isaacson described this as “demon mode,” a term used to characterize Musk’s intense reaction when feeling betrayed, particularly by Altman.
How the Feud Started
Musk and Altman co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with the goal of creating an open-source, non-profit AI lab to counterbalance Google’s dominance in the field. However, Altman later decided to convert OpenAI into a for-profit entity, which Musk saw as a betrayal of the company’s original mission. This change marked the beginning of the end of their partnership and the start of a bitter feud.
The Lawsuit
The conflict between Musk and Altman escalated to the point where Musk filed a lawsuit against Altman in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. Musk alleged that OpenAI had abandoned its founding non-profit mission, leading to a significant rift between the two parties. Isaacson believes that the personal dimension of the conflict makes a quiet settlement unlikely, stating that this is not just a standard contract dispute, but a story about ideology, trust, and a founding relationship that has turned sour.
What Prediction Markets Say
Despite the intensity of the feud, prediction markets do not favor Musk. The Polymarket contract on whether Musk will win his case against Altman by December 31, 2026, stands at only 39%, with $93,126 in volume. Similarly, Kalshi has a contract that gives Musk a 36% chance of prevailing, with $339,000 in volume. Both charts show a decline in odds from around 55% in January and February to the current levels.
On Sam Altman
Isaacson provided an example of Altman’s business strategy in action, citing the instance where Anthropic refused to comply with Pentagon demands to remove safety guardrails from its AI, resulting in the loss of a contract. OpenAI quickly stepped in, offering its services as a replacement and promising not to impose similar safety restrictions. Isaacson characterized Altman’s move as both personal and business-driven, aiming to capitalize on Anthropic’s loss and secure a contract with the Pentagon. This move showcases the competitive and strategic nature of Altman’s approach to business.