The current state of Tesla’s inventory has raised concerns among analysts, with a record 50,363 vehicles sitting unsold at the end of Q1. This has led JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman to reiterate his Underweight rating and $145 price target, implying a roughly 60% decline from Tesla’s current price.
The Delivery Miss That Started It
Tesla reported 358,023 Q1 deliveries, which is 4% below analyst consensus and 7% below JPMorgan’s own forecast. The company built 50,363 more vehicles than it sold in the quarter, marking the largest single-quarter inventory buildup in its history. Brinkman noted that Tesla’s production has grown 80% since Q1 2023, while vehicle sales have declined 15% over the same period.
The Narrative Problem
The deeper issue, according to Brinkman, is the gap between Tesla’s stock price and its fundamentals. Delivery volumes peaked in mid-2022, yet the stock has risen roughly 50% since then. This discrepancy suggests that Wall Street may be pricing in a robotaxi and humanoid robotics transformation that has yet to materialize.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets are skeptical about Tesla’s ability to launch robotaxis and humanoid robots. A California robotaxi launch by June 30 is priced at just 13% on Polymarket, while Optimus hitting public sale by the same date sits at a skeptical 6%. The rumored Tesla-SpaceX merger thesis only commands 6%.
Where The Street Stands
JPMorgan’s $145 target is among the most bearish on the Street, although HSBC has a target as low as $119. Consensus targets, meanwhile, sit in the $390s. The April 22 earnings call may be the next inflection point, with investors waiting to see if Musk can provide enough updates on the robotaxi story to keep the narrative trade alive.
Key Points:
- Tesla’s inventory issues may lead to a 60% decline in stock price
- The company’s production has grown 80% since Q1 2023, while vehicle sales have declined 15%
- The gap between Tesla’s stock price and fundamentals is a major concern
- Prediction markets are skeptical about Tesla’s ability to launch robotaxis and humanoid robots
- The Street is divided, with JPMorgan’s $145 target being one of the most bearish and consensus targets sitting in the $390s.