As Elon Musk-led SpaceX prepares for its IPO, traders on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the listing to be delayed beyond its planned June timeline.
90% Chance SpaceX IPO Gets Delayed
Traders on these platforms are placing their bets, with the following predictions:
- 91% of bettors on Polymarket believe the IPO will take place before September 30
- Over 94% of bets on Polymarket are placed on the IPO not happening before December 31
- On Kalshi, bettors think there is a 92% and 93% chance that the IPO will take place in November and December, respectively
- According to the contract, there is a 97% chance that the IPO will take place before June 1st next year
However, the contract on Polymarket suggests that bettors think there’s only a 46% chance the IPO takes place before June 30, while on Kalshi, bettors think there is a 66% chance it takes place before the end of June.
IPO Concerns
Analysts have cautioned investors against participating in the IPO, citing concerns with the commercial space flight giant’s valuation. They believe that participants in the IPO wouldn’t be able to generate returns on their investments at a $2 trillion market cap.
TV host Jim Cramer has also opined that the IPO could trigger a Tesla Inc. sell-off, following a bearish analyst’s “sell” rating on the stock. The analyst predicted a 60% decline in Tesla’s stock value, and Cramer believes this could lead to people selling off Tesla “to buy SpaceX.”
Elon Musk Rubbishes $2 Trillion Talks
CEO Musk has denied that SpaceX is targeting a valuation of upwards of $2 trillion with the IPO. He had previously confirmed a $1.75 trillion valuation for the company, and SpaceX reportedly aims to raise over $75 billion with the listing.
The series of rule changes adopted by the Nasdaq 100 index, including an expedited entry and counting listed and unlisted shares when calculating a company’s market capitalization, could help boost the IPO. The company is reportedly leaning towards a Nasdaq listing.