For years, investors looking to buy into Elon Musk’s vision had only one liquid option: Tesla Inc. However, this is about to change with Space Exploration Technologies Corp, also known as SpaceX, expected to debut as soon as next month. The upcoming IPO is set to provide a second pure-play entry point into what has been dubbed the “Muskonomy.”
A New Player in Town
SpaceX is expected to list under the ticker SPCX with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, surpassing Tesla’s current market cap of roughly $1.5 trillion. This new listing will undoubtedly draw attention and potentially shift the focus of investors.
Impact on Tesla
The introduction of SpaceX as a publicly traded company may weigh on Tesla’s stock performance. According to BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello, the IPO could have a negative impact on Tesla, particularly since retail investors own around 40% of Tesla shares. Joe Gilbert of Integrity Asset Management agrees, stating that the listing “cannot be a positive for Tesla” and that Musk’s focus appears to be on SpaceX.
Competition Beyond Retail
The competition between Tesla and SpaceX may extend beyond retail investors. SpaceX’s recent acquisition of xAI, which includes Grok and X, has positioned the company as a direct competitor to Tesla in the AI and robotics space. This could lead to a shift in investor attention and potentially impact Tesla’s premium valuation.
Retail Allocation and Voting Power
SpaceX may allocate up to 30% of its IPO to retail investors, which is roughly triple the typical share. These would be Class A shares, with Musk retaining around 79% of voting power through super-voting stock.
Market Predictions and Data
Polymarket traders currently price a merger announcement between SpaceX and Tesla by June 30 at roughly 1%. Kalshi, looking out further to May 2027, prices it at 50%. Vanda Research data shows that Tesla has drawn net retail inflows of only about $1 million since SpaceX confirmed its 2026 IPO intentions in December. DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas notes that the impact on Tesla shares may take around three months to materialize.
Conclusion
The upcoming SpaceX IPO is set to change the landscape of the “Muskonomy” and potentially shift the focus of investors. As the market prepares for this new development, investors should be aware of the potential implications for Tesla and the broader industry. With SpaceX poised to become a major player, the competition for investor attention is about to heat up.