Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. has experienced a substantial increase in car registrations in France, with a 655% surge in May to 5,446 vehicles. This significant growth is a promising sign of recovery for the electric vehicle (EV) maker in the European market, where it lost nearly half its market share last year.
A Note of Caution
The impressive headline number comes with a caveat. May 2025 was a particularly weak month for Tesla in France, with registrations falling roughly 67% year-over-year due to Model Y factory retooling and consumer boycotts. This created an artificially low base for comparison, which contributes to the notable increase.
Broader European Recovery
The rebound is not limited to France, as registrations have climbed in several other European markets:
- Sweden: 71% to 858 vehicles
- Denmark: 136% to 1,750 vehicles
- Spain: 113% to 1,690 vehicles
- Norway: 29% to 3,345 vehicles
According to ING senior economist Rico Luman, the recovery reflects accelerating EV adoption in Scandinavia and a catch-up effect in lagging markets like Spain. Although Tesla’s overall market share continues to erode, the broader EV market is growing rapidly enough to lift sales.
Upcoming Market Reports
Britain and Germany, the region’s two largest car markets, are expected to report May figures later this week.
Prediction Markets Optimistic About Q2 Deliveries
Polymarket traders are positioning for a stronger Q2 than Wall Street, with the 425,000 to 450,000 delivery band leading at 34%. Kalshi bettors give Tesla a 58% probability of clearing 430,000 deliveries in Q2. In contrast, Wall Street has been cutting forecasts, with Morningstar projecting a 5% decline in deliveries in 2026 to 1.56 million.
Implications for Tesla
The May registration data provides a fresh data point for bulls ahead of the Q2 print in early July. Retail traders and prediction market bettors are pricing in a beat that institutional analysts are not. Tesla shares closed near $434 on Friday, up roughly 39% over the past year despite European market share losses. The upcoming Q2 report will be closely watched to see if Tesla can meet the optimistic expectations.