Gene Munster, managing partner and co-founder of Deepwater Asset Management, has shared his insights on SpaceX’s expected market debut. According to Munster, investors should focus less on the company’s $1.77 trillion valuation and more on the $75 billion primary stock sale that could shape early trading.
Munster Says Float Matters More Than Valuation
Munster believes that the size of the primary raise is the more important figure in assessing how SpaceX may trade in the month after its initial public offering. The offering could rise to about $86 billion if underwriters exercise overallotment options. This structure would leave a limited float, or the number of shares available for public trading. Munster argues that tight supply, combined with intense demand, could fuel an immediate IPO “pop.”
Long-Term Bulls See Core Tech Holding
Munster says that longer-term investors should view SpaceX as a “core tech holding,” stating that there “should be little debate” about owning the stock. He describes Elon Musk as a “generational founder” and notes that SpaceX stands apart in sovereign AI infrastructure. Munster has previously argued that SpaceX is building the world’s first “sovereign AI” platform by controlling hardware, software, and distribution.
Key Points to Consider
- SpaceX is expected to have a limited float, which could lead to an immediate IPO “pop”
- Elon Musk is considered a “generational founder” with a strong vision for the company
- SpaceX is building a unique “sovereign AI” platform with control over hardware, software, and distribution
- The company’s IPO could pave the way for other AI companies to follow
SpaceX Listing Could Reset IPO Market
SpaceX has set its IPO price at $135 a share as it nears a historic public listing. The offering would rank as the largest IPO on record if completed as planned, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has called the listing a “watershed moment,” saying it would be the first major test for public markets after years of muted IPO activity.
Market Expectations
- Prediction market traders on Polymarket have assigned a 75% chance that SpaceX’s market value will top $2 trillion after the IPO
- There is a 90% chance that the company’s market value will exceed $1.8 trillion
- However, some critics have argued that SpaceX may be worth far less than market expectations, citing uncertainty about future revenue from AI and space computing.