Tesla Inc. is set to report its Q2 deliveries, with the Elon Musk-led EV giant expected to report a surge in deliveries. The company reported around 384,000 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2025. This time, Tesla is expected to report a surge in deliveries amid a surge in gas prices.
Prediction Market Insights
The prediction market is very bullish on Tesla’s Q2 delivery numbers. Over $730,000 has been bet on the contract “Tesla deliveries in Q2.” According to prediction markets, the probability that Tesla will report over 475,000 vehicle deliveries is 66%. Bettors have placed a 56% probability on the company delivering over 480,000 vehicles.
Analyst Expectations
Analysts, on the other hand, expect lower numbers. Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC expects Tesla to report close to 410,000 units in the quarter, exceeding Wall Street estimates of 406,000, but significantly below what prediction markets are betting on. Despite the surge in deliveries, Black said he remains “cautious” on Tesla.
We remain cautious on TSLA longer term as 2026-30 earnings ests continue to decline and as other manufacturers roll out unsupervised autonomy over the next 12 months.
Comments from Analysts
Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki shared that Tesla “had a solid qtr.” Gerber had earlier commented on Tesla’s pivot away from EVs and into artificial intelligence.
Key Points
- Tesla is expected to report a surge in Q2 deliveries
- Prediction markets are bullish on Tesla’s Q2 delivery numbers
- Analysts expect lower numbers, with Gary Black predicting 410,000 units
- Ross Gerber says Tesla had a solid quarter
Conclusion
Tesla’s Q2 delivery report is highly anticipated, with prediction markets and analysts having different expectations. While prediction markets are bullish, analysts are more cautious, expecting lower numbers. The actual delivery numbers will be reported soon, and it will be interesting to see how they compare to the expectations.