Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC expects Tesla Inc.’s value to decline in the coming days due to a slowdown in its self-driving progress.
Expected Earnings Projections
Black anticipates that full-year 2026 earnings projections for Tesla will be raised to approximately $2.00 per share from earlier projections of $1.90 per share. However, he believes that Tesla’s valuation could take a hit as investors adapt to the company’s backpedaling on the timing of unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi.
Capital Expenditure
The investor notes that Tesla’s forecasted Capital Expenditure of $25 billion should not be a surprise, as the company invests in AI and self-driving efforts. During Tesla’s earlier earnings call in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company had said that CapEx spending could exceed $20 billion.
Autopilot Setbacks
Meanwhile, investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki criticized Tesla after Elon Musk admitted that vehicles equipped with the Hardware 3 (HW3) chip would not be able to achieve Unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Gerber had earlier called for Tesla to offer refunds to customers who had paid for the technology when making their purchase if the FSD v14.3 did not offer unsupervised autonomy.
Sales Decline in California
Tesla’s sales in California took a hit, with the company delivering 31,958 units in the state during the first quarter of the year, over 10,000 units lower than the 42,000 units it delivered during the same period in 2025. However, the Model Y was still the best-selling electric vehicle in the state.
Price Action
Tesla’s stock price declined 0.31% to $386.30 in the after-hours trading session on Wednesday. According to rankings, Tesla offers satisfactory Momentum, but poor Value, with a favorable price trend in the Long term.
Conclusion
Tesla’s valuation is expected to decrease amid autopilot setbacks, with the company’s backpedaling on the timing of unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi. While earnings projections are expected to increase, the company’s Capital Expenditure and sales decline in California are notable concerns. As the electric vehicle market continues to evolve, investors will be watching Tesla’s progress closely.