Investor Gary Black expects Tesla’s valuation to decline in the coming days due to a slowdown in its self-driving progress. Despite expecting full-year 2026 earnings projections for Tesla to be raised to approximately $2.00 per share, Black believes the company’s valuation could take a hit.
Expected Earnings and Valuation
- Full-year 2026 earnings projections: $2.00 per share (up from $1.90)
- 2026 P/E: expected to come down from its current 204x
- Valuation decline due to Tesla management backpedaling on timing of unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi
Capital Expenditure
Tesla’s forecasted Capital Expenditure of $25 billion is expected, as the company invests in AI and self-driving efforts. This expenditure should not be a surprise, as the company had previously stated that CapEx spending could exceed $20 billion.
Investor Reactions
Other investors, such as Ross Gerber, have criticized Tesla for its admission that vehicles equipped with the Hardware 3 (HW3) chip would not be able to achieve Unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). Gerber has called for Tesla to offer refunds to customers who paid for the technology.
Sales Performance
Tesla’s sales in California have taken a hit, with the company delivering 31,958 units in the state during the first quarter of the year. This is over 10,000 units lower than the same period in 2025. However, the Model Y was still the best-selling electric vehicle in the state.
Price Action
Tesla’s stock price declined 0.31% to $386.30 in after-hours trading on Wednesday.
Market Analysis
According to market rankings, Tesla offers satisfactory Momentum but poor Value. The company provides a favorable price trend in the Long term.